Missing millions: the human cost of the Mexican Revolution

© 2001 Robert McCaa, University of Minnesota Population Center

Appendix

Appendix 1. Data inputs for the inverse projection models by sex

The following instructions were used with the Populate software program to project various scenarios discussed in the paper (see McCaa and Brignoli, 1989) available at: http://www.hist.umn.edu/~rmccaa/programs/programs.htm

Females Mexico Populate instructions: annual projections with counterfactual scenarios (absolute figures are in thousands)

  • year,1895,1940,1F,6349.536,27,90
  • births revolution, .048 , .048!1905 , .046!1910 , .045 , .048 baby boomlet, .041 , .040!1917 , .040 , .044 , .046!1920 , .045!1925 , .042!1927, .042, .044!1930 , .045!1935 , .043!1940
  • deaths revolution, .036 , .035!1905, .033!1910 , .036 , .046 , .050 , .052 , .047 , .042 , .034 , .036, .028, .032!1920 , .030!1925 , .034 , .036 , .034, .028!1930 , .0267!1935 , .0235!1940
  • births reform counterfactual , .048 , .048!1905 , .046!1910 , .046!1919 , .046!1920 , .045!1925 , .044!1930 , .045!1935 , .044!1940
  • deaths reform counterfactual , .036 , .035!1905, .033!1910 , .033!1917, .036, .028, .032!1920 , .030!1925 , .028!1930 , .0267!1935 , .0235!1940
  • births 4 points below best fit, .044 , .044!1905 , .042!1910 , .041 , .044 baby boomlet, .037 , .036!1917 , .036 , .040 , .042!1920 , .041!1925 , .038!1927, .038, .040!1930 , .041!1935 , .040!1940
  • deaths 4 points below best fit, .032 , .031!1905, .029!1910 , .032 , .042 , .046 , .048 , .043 , .038 , .030 , .032, .024, .028!1920 , .026!1925 , .030 , .032 , .030, .024!1930 , .0227!1935 , .0195!1940
  • births 4 points above best fit, .052 , .052!1905 , .050!1910 , .049 , .052 baby boomlet, .045 , .044!1917 , .044 , .048 , .050!1920 , .049!1925 , .046!1927, .046, .048!1930 , .049!1935 , .048!1940
  • deaths 4 points above best fit, .040 , .039!1905, .037!1910 , .040 , .050 , .054 , .056 , .051 , .046 , .038 , .040, .032, .036!1920 , .034!1925 , .038 , .040 , .038, .032!1930 , .0307!1935 , .0275!1940
  • age structure 1895 (stable cbr 51 cdr 39), .0385, .0327, .0296, .0276, .0263, .0254, .0247, .0241, .0236, .0232, .0227, .0223, .0219, .0215, .0210, .0206, .0202, .0197, .0193, .0189, .0184, .0180, .0175, .0171, .0167, .0163, .0159, .0155, .0151, .0147, .0143, .0139, .0136, .0132, .0129, .0125, .0122, .0119, .0116, .0113, .0110, .0107, .0104, .0101, .0099, .0096, .0093, .0091, .0088, .0085, .0083, .0080, .0078, .0075, .0072, .0070, .0067, .0064, .0061, .0058, .0055, .0052, .0049, .0046, .0043, .0040, .0037, .0034, .0031, .0027, .0024, .0021, .0019, .0016, .0013, .0011, .0009, .0007, .0006, .0004, .0003, .0002, .0002, .0001, .0001, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000
  • qx age structure of mortality model (female west e0=27) lower bound, .34722, .11395, .05280, .02847, .01726, .01179, .00913, .00797, .00764, .00778, .00818, .00874, .00937, .01004, .01071, .01137, .01202, .01264, .01323, .01380, .01434, .01486, .01535, .01582, .01627, .01671, .01714, .01757, .01798, .01840, .01882, .01925, .01968, .02013, .02060, .02110, .02162, .02217, .02276, .02338, .02406, .02479, .02558, .02643, .02736, .02836, .02946, .03064, .03193, .03334, .03487, .03653, .03834, .04031, .04245, .04478, .04731, .05005, .05303, .05626, .05976, .06354, .06764, .07207, .07686, .08202, .08759, .09358, .10003, .10695, .11438, .12234, .13085, .13994, .14963, .15995, .17092, .18255, .19485, .20785, .22154, .23593, .25101, .26679, .28324, .30034, .31808, .33641, .35529, .37468, .5
  • qx age structure of mortality model (female west e0=77) upper bound, .01245, .00674, .00347, .00171, .00081, .00038, .00019, .00011, .00010, .00010, .00011, .00013, .00015, .00016, .00018, .00020, .00021, .00023, .00024, .00026, .00027, .00029, .00031, .00032, .00034, .00036, .00039, .00041, .00044, .00047, .00051, .00055, .00059, .00065, .00070, .00077, .00084, .00092, .00102, .00112, .00124, .00137, .00152, .00169, .00188, .00209, .00233, .00259, .00289, .00323, .00360, .00402, .00449, .00502, .00561, .00627, .00702, .00785, .00877, .00981, .01097, .01227, .01373, .01535, .01716, .01919, .02144, .02396, .02677, .02989, .03337, .03724, .04155, .04632, .05161, .05748, .06396, .07113, .07902, .08772, .09726, .10773, .11917, .13165, .14522, .15994, .17583, .19295, .21130, .23091, .3
  • migration female net (thousands), -1,-1!1899, -3.2,-3.2!1904, -3.4,-3.4!1909, -5, -5!1914, -15,-15!1919, -10,-10!1924, -6,-6!1929, 3.3,3.3!1935,-2!1940
  • crisis, .040!1895, .040!1940
  • end

    Males Mexico populate instructions: annual projections with counterfactual scenarios (absolute figures in thousands)

  • year,1895,1940,1M, 6282.892, 27, 90
  • births revolution (from female projection), 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 367.55775, 394.0272, 335.1873, 329.23044, 324.338175, 319.99401, 318.486, 319.494, 354.354, 375.4842, 378.70875, 382.0824, 385.55496, 389.07708, 392.8365, 384.2181, 373.6152, 376.0407, 388.6512, 403.2798, 411.88875, 420.88536, 430.22721, 440.01216, 450.198, 456.71136, 463.57017, 470.72214, 478.16223, 485.793
  • births reform counterfactual, 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 376.4502, 381.1836, 385.9653, 390.8436, 395.5287, 400.0206, 404.5608, 408.5697, 413.6412, 419.7753, 423.43245, 427.23324, 431.12748, 435.16074, 439.425, 443.86944, 448.49091, 453.23964, 458.11311, 463.2936, 473.14995, 483.4494, 494.19699, 505.39776, 517.05675, 524.54304, 532.36344, 540.5589, 549.07671, 557.865
  • births no mortality cost counter-factual, 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 368.0775, 397.7568, 343.49595, 343.546665, 344.069775, 343.46277, 343.602, 344.904, 382.5822, 405.4302, 408.95736, 412.62984, 416.39745, 420.2583, 424.35225, 415.962225, 406.7784, 411.894, 427.3899, 444.0282, 453.47211, 463.35618, 473.63862, 484.37088, 495.558, 502.76352, 510.25968, 518.08806, 526.2894, 534.7188
  • births no lost births counter-factual, 321.9048, 325.836, 329.8176, 333.8496, 338.0328, 342.216, 346.3992, 350.7336, 355.1184, 359.604, 364.14, 365.70366, 367.28916, 368.7957, 370.32072, 371.8134, 375.9189, 377.6094, 376.6434, 374.5665, 372.8277, 372.7311, 375.0012, 378.4788, 383.1639, 388.7667, 392.12586, 395.63244, 399.18858, 402.9354, 406.8225, 410.04768, 411.96351, 413.7525, 416.57616, 420.7896, 429.80301, 439.1604, 448.91238, 459.1104, 469.71225, 476.5152, 483.66024, 491.09508, 498.86109, 506.8602
  • deaths revolution, .038 , .037!1905, .034!1910 , .038 , .050 , .054 , .056 , .051 , .046 , .033 , .037, .028, .033!1920 , .032!1925 , .036 , .038 , .036, .031!1930 , .028!1935 , .025!1940
  • deaths reform counterfactual , .038 , .037!1905, .034!1910 , .033!1917, .037, .028, .033!1920 , .032!1925 , .031!1930 , .028!1935 , .025!1940
  • age structure 1895 stable male pop, .0384, .0338, .0315, .0300, .0289, .0281, .0274, .0268, .0262, .0257, .0251, .0246, .0241, .0236, .0231, .0226, .0221, .0216, .0211, .0205, .0200, .0195, .0189, .0184, .0179, .0174, .0169, .0164, .0159, .0154, .0149, .0144, .0139, .0134, .0130, .0125, .0121, .0116, .0112, .0108, .0104, .0100, .0096, .0092, .0088, .0084, .0081, .0077, .0073, .0070, .0066, .0063, .0060, .0057, .0053, .0050, .0047, .0044, .0041, .0038, .0036, .0033, .0030, .0028, .0025, .0023, .0021, .0018, .0016, .0015, .0013, .0011, .0010, .0008, .0007, .0006, .0005, .0004, .0003, .0002, .0002, .0001, .0001, .0001, .0001, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000, .0000
  • qx male west e0=25 lower bound, .35160 , .11341 , .05924 , .03608 , .02399 , .01705 , .01288 , .01035 , .00887 , .00809 , .00779 , .00784 , .00812 , .00858 , .00915 , .00981 , .01053 , .01127 , .01203 , .01280 , .01356 , .01431 , .01505 , .01577 , .01648 , .01716 , .01783 , .01848 , .01912 , .01975 , .02037 , .02098, .02160, .02221, .02284, .02347, .02412, .02479, .02549, .02622, .02698, .02780, .02866, .02958, .03056, .03161, .03275, .03397, .03529, .03672, .03827, .03995, .04176, .04373, .04586, .04818, .05068, .05340, .05634, .05952, .06296, .06668, .07070, .07504, .07971, .08475, .09018, .09601, .10227, .10898, .11618, .12388, .13210, .14088, .15022, .16016, .17070, .18187, .19369, .20615, .21927, .23306, .24750, .26260, .27835, .29472, .31170, .32926, .34736, .36596, .5
  • qx male west e0=77 upper bound, .01348, .00057, .00042, .00035, .00031, .00028, .00026, .00024, .00023, .00022, .00022, .00022, .00023, .00024, .00028, .00033, .00039, .00047, .00054, .00060, .00065, .00068, .00069, .00068, .00067, .00065, .00063, .00062, .00061, .00061, .00062, .00064, .00067, .00072, .00077, .00084, .00091, .00100, .00110, .00122, .00135, .00150, .00166, .00185, .00205, .00229, .00255, .00284, .00317, .00353, .00394, .00440, .00491, .00548, .00612, .00684, .00764, .00853, .00952, .01063, .01188, .01326, .01480, .01653, .01845, .02059, .02297, .02563, .02858, .03186, .03551, .03955, .04404, .04901, .05451, .06060, .06731, .07470, .08284, .09178, .10158, .11229, .12398, .13669, .15049, .16542, .18151, .19879, .21728, .23698, .35
  • migration male net annual, -1.5, -1.5!1899, -4.0,-4.0!1904,-6.0,-6.0!1909,-12,-13,-15!1914,-26,-28!1919,-16,-16!1924,-14,-14!1929,15,25!1935,-3,-3!1940
  • crisis, .040!1895, .040!1940
  • end